HCMC housing market stays hot after merger, prices defy cooling hopes

Average prices across the newly merged city appear lower, but this is largely a statistical effect caused by adding cheaper surrounding provinces into the calculation. In reality, the cost of housing in core HCMC has barely budged, and in some cases, prices are still edging upward.

Illusion of decline, reality of stability
Real estate broker Minh Tuan, who has seven years of experience in the eastern districts, said he has been flooded with calls from clients asking if HCMC housing prices have dropped. “When I quote actual project prices in Thu Duc, most clients are surprised that they haven’t fallen compared to six months ago. In fact, some fully legal secondary projects in prime locations are up 1–2%,” he explained. Price declines, he added, only show up in aggregated reports, not in actual transactions.

Developers confirm the same trend. Le Thanh Hung, deputy director of a HCMC-based property firm, stated that land costs remain the largest input factor, and the state’s land price framework has never been reduced. “We have no basis to lower selling prices. Buyer expectations are real, but business reality is different,” he said.

Data from Savills shows that the average primary selling price for apartments, townhouses, and villas in old HCMC stayed around VND 90 million/m² during 2024 and Q1 2025. In contrast, newly merged provinces such as Binh Duong and Ba Ria–Vung Tau offered housing at about VND 40 million/m², most even lower. This price gap creates the impression of an overall drop when averaged across the expanded city.

Supply tight, demand cautious
DKRA Group’s July 2025 report highlighted weak demand in the townhouse and villa segment, with absorption rates only around 8% of primary supply, down 75% month-on-month. Transactions were concentrated in homes priced below VND 6 billion in Long An and Binh Duong and under VND 10 billion in old HCMC.

Primary prices in July held steady due to high input costs, though developers are offering incentives such as waived management fees, furniture packages, extended payment schedules, and bank loan support. Secondary prices rose slightly by 1–2%, particularly in legally complete projects with strong commercial potential and good connectivity.

Awaiting stimulus from planning and interest rates
Experts agree that the merger itself will not directly shift market prices. Cao Thi Thanh Huong, senior research manager at Savills Vietnam, stressed that housing costs depend mainly on end-user demand, infrastructure, and population dynamics. With input costs unchanged, price corrections are unlikely.

Future price movements will hinge on revised regional planning and the implementation of new laws on land, housing, and real estate business. The post-merger period is seen as critical for restructuring land allocation between residential, industrial, and agricultural use, which will directly impact land values and project development strategies.

Both Savills and DKRA emphasize that lending rates will play the most immediate role in shaping the market in late 2025. Stable mortgage rates are expected to encourage buyers back into the market and give developers more confidence to launch projects.

For sustainable growth, experts highlight three essential conditions: balanced supply-demand, controlled credit, and a transparent legal framework.